2017年4月6日星期四

美联储三月升息的重要因素:股市太猛

昨天公布的美联储会议纪要显示美联储对股市疯牛十分担忧,或是三月升息的重要因素。美联储三月升息比较仓促,之前市场明显准备不足,美联储在公开市场会议前夕不得不高分贝造势(见《美联储三月升息基本坐实》)。会议纪要显示美联储官员“有些人认为股市价格相对经典估值标准太高”。美联储会议纪要原文摘录如下,
Many participants discussed the implications of the rise in equity prices over the past few months, with several of them citing it as contributing to an easing of financial conditions. A few participants attributed the recent equity price appreciation to expectations for corporate tax cuts or to increased risk tolerance among investors rather than to expectations of stronger economic growth. Some participants viewed equity prices as quite high relative to standard valuation measures. It was observed that prices of other risk assets, such as emerging market stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, and commercial real estate, had also risen significantly in recent months. In contrast, prices of farmland reportedly had edged lower, in part because low commodity prices continued to weigh on farm income. Still, farmland valuations were said to remain quite high as gauged by standard benchmarks such as rent-to-price ratios.
美联储会议纪要于昨天下午两点公布,之后股市大跌(见图一)。在一定程度上美联储干预股市是个传统,如果股市走低,会给所谓金融状况带来负面影响,金融状况是美联储关心的要素之一。因此市场常常指望美联储在关键时刻对股市出手相救。相反,美联储担心股市太高并不常见。

美联储三月升息后市场反映比较温和(见《美联储三月升息是否成功?》),市场并未体会美联储的苦心。倒是昨天股市对会议纪要做出比较大的反映。目前情况看,特朗普经济政策可能遥不可及(见《特朗普中东政策急转向,经济政策根本顾不上》),特朗普再通胀可能性也日益减少,市场或许牛气耗尽,美联储将夺回市场控制权。

图一 标普500股指期货价格

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作者:藿香子
时间:2017年4月6日
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