众所周知,国会授予美联储两个任务:稳定的货币,(既合理的通胀),及就业最大化。所以物价指数和就业指数是备受关注的政策指数。同时美联储也关注宏观经济走向,因为宏观经济变化直接影响物价和就业市场。多年来市场也充分注意到美联储也很在意股市变化,对股市呵护有加。这一点可以理论上总结为对金融形势指数的重视。自美联储2015年进入利率正常化过程以来,美联储持续打退堂鼓,至今利率只提升了一次,升值0.25%。这让市场费神思索美联储决策的真正决定因素是什么。一种揣测认为美元汇率是另一重要因素。美联储持续拖拖拉拉,不愿动真格,是在避免美元升值。
William C. Dudley 的讲话对这些揣测有比较直接的揭示。
Dudley 首先强调金融形势对货币政策决定非常重要。这就明确表示,即使经济宏观数据良好,如果股市或信贷市场紧缩,美联储会谨慎从事,不会加息。
Dudley同时解释了联储会对合理利率的最新解读(原文如下)。美联储的各种经济模型对自然短期实际利率的估算基本都是零。(住:实际利率 = 名义利率 - 通胀)。现在的实际利率约为-1%,不比模型利率0%高很多。也就是说现在的汇率仍是刺激性的,但刺激力度很有限。这种利率预期意味着所谓利率正常化的升息空间十分有限,因为现在的利率不比自然利率低很多。
“Estimates of the neutral real short-term interest rate obtained from many of the DSGE models used within the Federal Reserve System are currently clustered around zero, and this seems reasonable to me. An implication is that at present there is only a small gap between the actual real short-term rate of about -1 percent and the neutral real short-term rate. In other words, U.S. monetary policy is accommodative, but only moderately so.”最值得关注的是 Dudley 花了很多笔墨阐述美元汇率对利率政策的关系(原文如下)。Dudley 指出美联储调低升息预期的一个重要原因是外国货币政策对美国金融形势的影响。如果国外经济状况不好导致普遍降息等货币刺激,美联储必须相机而动。否则加大的利率差会使美元升值,恶化美国的金融形势。欧洲和日本利率都出现显著下降,如果美联储延续早期利率期望值,则美元会升值更多。基于这一因素,美联储不得不多次调低利率预期值,确保美元升值比较有限。
尽管 Dudley 坚称这不是以美元汇率为目标,而是关注金融形势的自然产物。但究其效果,基本是接近设定美元期望目标值。这是一个相当重要的信号。可以想象欧洲,日本和英国升值遥遥无期,中国也在各种货币宽松之下,为避免美元升值,美联储基本会按兵不动。当然如果通胀大幅上扬,情况就会有变化。但全球过度产能加上普遍需求增长乏力,通胀大幅上升很难在短期出现。
”A second reason for the downward adjustment in U.S. interest rate expectations is that U.S. financial market conditions depend, in part, on the stance of U.S. monetary policy relative to monetary policies abroad. If the economic outlook abroad deteriorates and this causes foreign countries to pursue a more accommodative set of monetary policies, then the dollar would likely appreciate―other things equal― reflecting expectations of lower interest rates abroad relative to U.S. interest rates. In this case, the U.S. may need to adjust its own monetary policy path. If the FOMC did not make this adjustment, the stronger dollar could result in an undesired tightening of U.S. financial conditions. The expected forward interest rate paths in Europe and Japan have fallen considerably this year. If the FOMC had followed the median federal funds rate path from the December 2015 SEP projection, then the U.S. dollar would likely have appreciated much more significantly. Instead, the U.S. interest rate path has come down in tandem with the foreign interest rate paths and the dollar has appreciated only modestly. “综上所述,Dudley的讲话是美联储近来最重要的讲话。基于这些政策信号,1.5%左右10年国债利率并不为过。10年利率恐怕很难涨回2.0%了。
作者:藿香子
时间:2016年8月2日
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