2017年2月8日星期三

Coolidge 繁荣到底靠什么?

Coolidge 是美国第三十界总统,任期1923-29。Coolidge 执政期间美国经济比较繁荣,被称为 Coolidge 繁荣(Coolidge prosperity)。最近有网评将 Coolidge,里根和特朗普经济政策相提并论(见图一和图二),称政策核心是“减税,减少监督,贸易保护”。Coolidge 繁荣无疑为这一政策背书。不知作者动机如何,但论点与事实大相径庭。

首先,贸易保护是1928年法国兴起,美国推出的贸易保护法案,Smoot–Hawley 关税法案,是 Hoover 总统发起并在1930年通过,和 Coolidge 没有关系(见《以史为鉴:美国1930年关税法案和经济大萧条》)。因此 Coolidge 政策不包含贸易保护。

其次 Coolidgeq 坚持财政平衡,反对财政透支。因此 Coolidgeq和里根和特朗普也不是同路人。

再次 Coolidge 繁荣的原因也是众说纷纭,比如下列解释
While many Americans also attributed the Coolidge prosperity to his tax cuts on the wealthy, other say it was a result of wartime spending. Another contributor to the economic good times during the Coolidge presidency, and a factor that had little to do with the president himself, was the ability of industry to produce and ship goods on a large scale, thanks to technology, automation and electricity. This helped create jobs in manufacturing and transportation.

The market was so flooded with goods that banks and other financial institutions began extending credit to more average Americans in hopes of stimulating consumption. By the end of the 1920s, roughly 50 percent of Americans owned radios, automobiles and a variety of appliances. Despite the fact that most workers saw their wages increase by an average of 22 percent during the Coolidge years, the gap between rich and poor widened considerably during that time.
也就是说Coolidge 繁荣有其它因素,包括战时开支,工业电气化推动的制造业繁荣,以及银行扩张信贷推动消费者等。这些因素和 Coolidge本人政策没有任何直接关系。因此 Coolidge
政策和 Coolidge 繁荣没有因果关系。

综上,用Coolidge 繁荣为“减税,减少监督,贸易保护”政策背书,进而为特朗普经济政策叫好,实属假新闻。

图一 网评

图二 网评(续)

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作者:藿香子
时间:2017年2月8日
(版权所有,欢迎转载,请注明出处) 

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